It’s uncomfortable declaring gamers potential “busts” after final weekend. Accidents typically pressure you to take a step again from watching this recreation to ask “is it price it? Will it final?” And from a fantasy lens, practically a dozen gamers can be sidelined, impacting the depth of your league and roster. Beginning stars is as justifiable as ever, however I’m nonetheless right here to dump somewhat chilly water in your optimism, highlighting a handful of upcoming “busts” for the forthcoming slate of video games. Let me be clear — I like enjoyable, I choose to concentrate on positives and, most of all, don’t hate any of those gamers. I merely imagine they may carry out under their regular output.

Falcons RB Todd Gurley vs Bears (+3)

Complete: o/u 47.5 – 89% Began

The fantasy collective all the time instructs you to chase quantity, as it’s the most predictable component of fantasy soccer and gives a basic flooring. Few gamers are hovering barely above their flooring by way of two weeks like Todd Gurley. The Falcons working again holds the general RB11 utilization and has turned it into RB36 manufacturing — a principal cause why we prevented backs drafted in his space (Rounds 4-6). I’m not telling you to bench Gurley, particularly on this damage setting, however take into account how superb final week’s gamescript ought to have been — up 26-7 — and it resulted in simply 61 yards on 21 carries.

This aligns with the attention take a look at. Gurley is now a one-speed participant, has not pressured a single missed deal with by way of 120 minutes of soccer, owns simply two receptions in two video games and has simply three touches inside the 10-yard line (the identical as Ito Smith). On a staff that’s 28th in dashing snap charge by way of two video games, Gurley’s fantasy worth is rooted in scoring a landing.

Prediction: 19 carries for 61 yards. 1 reception for 7 yards.

Atlanta Falcons working again Todd Gurley has develop into a landing or bust choice for fantasy managers. (AP Picture/John Bazemore)Extra

Complete: o/u 44.5 – 74% Began

This marks Watson’s second straight week on this checklist after a 16-point efficiency towards the Ravens. What a brutal opening three contests for Watson and Co., Chiefs, Ravens and now the Steelers. Unfair, soccer scheduling spirits.

What’s additionally unfair is Houston’s remedy of this offense. All of us hoped {that a} play-calling shift from Invoice O’Brien to Tim Kelly would make issues simpler, probably within the type of layups and easy completions. By means of two video games that merely stays a dream — Simply 5 completions to working backs, seven completions to security blanket Randall Cobb. In equity, Watson is eliminating the soccer a tenth of a second extra rapidly compared to 2019, and his Common Supposed Air Yards has dropped by half a yard, however to this point that isn’t sufficient to beat good defenses connected to nice offenses — just like the Steelers this Sunday.

Pittsburgh’s protection is exhibiting just a few extra unfastened ends this season in comparison with final — however they’re getting superb play from Tyson Alualu on prime of the opposite stars already on the roster. Every week I try and determine two or three matchups the place the defensive entrance may utterly overpower the offensive line — a real mismatch. That is a kind of events, particularly if the Steelers right their early season tendency of permitting one or two significant 20-plus yard catches per recreation. The Texans have run simply three performs inside their opponent’s 10-yard line (final within the league), so their reliance on massive performs continues to be troublesome.

Story continues

Prediction: 23 of 36 for 255 yards, 1 landing, 1 interception and sacked Four occasions.

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Payments WR John Brown vs Rams (+2.5)

Complete: o/u 46.5 – 47% Began

The Payments have completely turned the keys of the offense over to Josh Allen — 46 passing makes an attempt and 14 carries in Week 1 (out of 87 performs), 35 passing makes an attempt and 4 carries in Week 2 (out of 61 performs). This has resulted in WR8 utilization for Stefon Diggs and general WR20 utilization for John Brown. Allen’s struggles on downfield passes in his first two seasons are well-known, all the time possessing the arm power however missing the loft or contact. That has modified this yr, as Allen has related on 12-of-14 makes an attempt touring 15-plus yards this season — a completion proportion distinction of 53% in comparison with earlier seasons.

That’s unbelievable enchancment and speaks to the leap that Allen is making. Name me a pessimist, however some regression is inevitable on this space, not less than to a league common charge. Brown has been sensational, scoring a landing and recording not less than 70 yards in every recreation this season. However on account of predicted regression and his pure slotting as second within the goal tree behind Diggs, Brown may wrestle to maintain up the superb tempo he’s set by way of two weeks.

Prediction: 5 targets, Four catches for 51 yards.

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Broncos RB Melvin Gordon vs Bucs (-6.5)

Complete: o/u 43.5 – 86% Began

It’s been a volume-based begin for Gordon, turning RB13 utilization into RB10 general scoring. My worry is rooted within the change at quarterback, with Jeff Driskel taking up for an injured Drew Lock. Driskel led the NFL in Common Air Yards per Try final week and is clearly not afraid to assault vertically, however far too typically I noticed a quarterback tuck the soccer and shell up in confusion when his main learn was not out there. The Bucs protection has finished an amazing job of bottling up opposing runners on a per carry foundation and is most weak to receptions out of the backfield, an space the place the Broncos haven’t featured Gordon so far this season (simply 5 complete catches).

Prediction: 15 carries for 41 yards. Three receptions for 20 yards.

[Week 3 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]

Raiders WR Henry Ruggs vs Patriots (-6.5)

Complete: o/u 47.5 – 10% Began

You’re trying on the largest supporter of Henry Ruggs within the soccer world, and even I might not begin him once more till we see the identical type of utilization that was displayed in Week 1. The Raiders have a number of choices on offense to assault defenses — Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and Ruggs. Sadly, and sure partly on account of Ruggs’ knee damage that restricted him in Week 1, the Raiders rank final in targets directed in direction of large receivers by way of two video games. I merely can’t see Invoice Belichick permitting a participant like Ruggs to rack up manufacturing towards his protection. Granted, Ruggs has the pace to interrupt an enormous play at any second.

Prediction: 6 touches for 60 complete yards.

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