Mail-in and absentee ballots, like these being processed by election staff in Pennsylvania, are a topic of misinformation spreading throughout social media. AP Picture/Matt Slocum

With no clear winner but within the presidential election, there’s a possibility for partisan activists, conspiracy theorists and others to use public uncertainty and nervousness to aim to delegitimize the election outcomes.

A rising variety of narratives alleging electoral wrongdoing have been spreading on social media, shared by way of hundreds of thousands of tweets, Fb posts and TikTok movies, typically utilizing hashtags like #riggedelection and #StopTheSteal. All these narratives depend on “proof” of ballots which might be misplaced or discovered after the election, doubtful statistics, deceptive movies and allegations of international interference. Folks looking for to delegitimize election outcomes are weaving real-world occasions, corresponding to remoted confrontations with ballot staff or damaged voting machines, into claims of broader malfeasance by nefarious partisans on one facet or the opposite.

As members of the Election Integrity Partnership and researchers who examine on-line misinformation and disinformation, we now have been monitoring social media. We’re seeing 5 sorts of false and deceptive narratives that individuals are spreading and are prone to unfold on-line, wittingly or not. We urge individuals to be alert for – and to keep away from spreading – the next sorts of misinformation, which erode belief within the electoral course of and in each other.

1. Makes an attempt to sow confusion and doubt

The anticipate election outcomes has been a irritating one. Throughout occasions of uncertainty and nervousness, individuals are susceptible to misinformation and manipulation.

Due to vital will increase within the variety of mail-in ballots in lots of states and inconsistently timed processes for counting mail-in, early in-person and Election Day in-person ballots, even specialists are struggling to make predictions and perceive how remaining votes might line up. This lack of knowledge and certainty can gas doubt, fan misinformation and supply alternatives for these looking for to delegitimize the outcomes.

Because the vote counts are available in and vote shares shift, some “influencers” – individuals with many followers within the media and on social media – have been questioning, with doubtful proof, the outcomes and the voting course of in battleground states. For instance, photos purporting to point out individuals shifting ballots in nefarious methods have gone viral – one turned out to be a ballot employee shifting ballots in an official capability, and one other turned out to be a photographer transporting tools. There have additionally been a number of disputed claims that sudden will increase in votes for one candidate point out voter fraud.

2. “Proof” of voter fraud

Many individuals have documented and shared their experiences on the polls on Election Day. Although the overwhelming majority have been uneventful, some confirmed remoted points. Equally, some tales in native information shops and on social media confirmed remoted issues with mail-in ballots and voting at polling stations. Politically motivated people are prone to cherry-pick and assemble these items of digital “proof” to suit narratives that search to undermine belief within the outcomes.

A lot of this proof is prone to be derived from actual occasions, although taken out of context and exaggerated. Because the race begins to focus in on a small variety of states the place the vote margin is slim, we count on to see instances of an incident in a single place used to assist false claims of fraud in one other place.

A story that emerged on Election Day – and that continues to unfold – falsely claims that ballot staff supplied some voters with pencils or Sharpie pens that may have rendered their ballots unreadable by the voting machines, thus nullifying some Trump supporters’ votes. There have been greater than 160,000 tweets and retweets that used the phrases “Sharpies,” “felt tip” or “Sharpiegate” over the course of Nov. 4. The false claims rapidly moved into the offline world. They have been echoed by Trump supporters protesting in Maricopa County, Arizona, that night, and Fox Information reported that the state legal professional basic’s workplace was “investigating” the matter.

3. Ballots “discovered,” ballots “misplaced”

One of the vital dominant narratives on the political proper is prone to be Democratic activists or officers forging votes or faking vote totals to make up floor after the polls closed. This can be a conspiracy principle that was alluded to by President Trump on election night time, when he claimed to concern that ballots is perhaps “discovered” at 4 o’clock within the morning and “added to the record.”

False claims of discovered ballots in Georgia emerged on Twitter on Nov. Four and have been amplified by Donald Trump Jr. On Nov. 5 Fb banned a gaggle known as Cease The Steal for violating the platform’s insurance policies. The group had been selling conspiracy theories about ballots and organizing protests.

Twitter has been flagging false and deceptive tweets like this declare that ballots in Georgia have been created after polls closed.

Display seize by Kate Starbird, College of Washington, CC BY-NC-ND

False claims that nefarious ballot staff or activists destroyed, discarded or deliberately mislaid Republican ballots, or changed them with pretend Democratic ones, may be woven into this narrative.

We count on individuals looking for to delegitimize election outcomes to advertise this principle utilizing various interlinking parts. They’re prone to body statistical shifts and the fixing of reporting errors as post-election poll stuffing – for instance, the current false declare that votes had “magically” appeared for Biden in a single day in Michigan. The fact on this case was an error in a file the state despatched to a media outlet. The speculation is prone to additionally deal with chain-of-custody occasions, to create the impression that ballots could possibly be added or swapped.

Collectively, purported anomalies in statistics, native information studies about misplaced ballots and occasional video of alleged poll mistreatment could possibly be used to type a higher narrative of an enormous, multilevel institutional conspiracy. Since fashionable conspiracy theories are comparatively omnivorous, even tangential parts such because the Sharpiegate declare could possibly be folded into this broader story.

4. Unhealthy projections

Even one of the best election fashions are sometimes fallacious. Inaccurate projections, which might be deliberately or unintentionally fallacious, might be picked up and used to contest outcomes that battle with the projection or forged doubt on the method as a complete. Early projections by Fox Information and the AP of Biden successful Arizona seem to have been untimely given the closeness of the race there, and if the ultimate tally strikes in Trump’s favor it might gas criticism about an unfair course of. Trump supporters protesting in Maricopa County on Nov. Four expressed anger at Fox Information for its Arizona name.

Two complicating components within the 2020 election are that the polls are fairly totally different from the precise vote share, and that the size and demographics of mail-in voting, which skews Democratic, have difficult conventional fashions for projecting victory.

Crimson shifts and blue shifts – when vote tallies shift from one candidate to the opposite as votes are counted – are widespread, however that hasn’t stopped purveyors of misinformation from citing them to falsely declare fraud.

These situations, together with shut margins in a number of states, have made it harder to mission winners for a number of races. The longer intervals of uncertainty create extra alternative for misinformation to unfold.

5. Untimely claims to victory

Early within the morning of Nov. 4, not lengthy after polls closed on the finish of Election Day, President Trump made a speech by which he falsely asserted that he had received the election. Later within the day he adopted up with a tweet claiming victory in particular states, together with Pennsylvania, the place election officers have been nonetheless counting votes and no respected information group had known as the race.

These untimely and probably inaccurate claims of victory once more set the stage for arguing that conflicting outcomes are someway fraudulent or mirror a “rigged” election. This argument might advance the aims of a politician and enchantment to his supporters, however it might additionally undermine belief that the electoral course of is honest.

Shoring up the foundations of democracy

Political misinformation destabilizes the foundations of democracy, inflicting individuals to lose belief in democratic processes, data suppliers and, finally, each other.

We’re working to raised perceive these dynamics and determine methods to counter them, with the goal of serving to individuals turn out to be extra immune to manipulation. Our recommendation is to stay skeptical of claims in regards to the election that haven’t been confirmed by dependable sources and to suppose earlier than liking, retweeting or sharing.

Michael Caulfield, Director of Blended and Networked Studying at Washington State College Vancouver, contributed to this text.

Kate Starbird receives funding from the Nationwide Science Basis, the Knight Basis, the Hewlett Basis, and Craig Newmark Philanthropies.

Jevin West receives funding from the Nationwide Science Basis, the Knight Basis, the Hewlett Basis, and Craig Newmark Philanthropies.

Renee DiResta receives funding from Craig Newmark Philanthropies, the Hewlett Basis, Omidyar Community, and the Charles Koch Basis.