Each Donald Trump and Joe Biden placed on courageous faces within the hours after the U.S. election. (AP Images)

After a surreal election marketing campaign within the midst of a pandemic, we’re nonetheless undecided of the end result — both Donald Trump gained a second time period, or Joe Biden will change into the subsequent president. Though pre-election polls confirmed Trump heading for sure defeat, he as soon as once more defied pollsters.

Considered by many as a referendum on Trump’s first time period, and certainly on the person himself, the election was one of the vital tumultuous in American historical past. The result continues to be not clear as a result of ballots are nonetheless being counted in key battleground states.

Like Hillary Clinton 4 years in the past, Joe Biden positioned himself because the keeper of former president Barack Obama’s progressive ideology. In distinction, Trump promised an “America First” platform of limiting immigration and defending United States commerce pursuits — a stance that has included, at occasions, taking purpose at Canada, the nation’s closest buying and selling associate.

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Canada must see the U.S. and its commerce motives clearly

What’s forward for Canada?

For Canadians, a Trump victory would primarily imply extra of the identical however maybe at a decrease decibel stage.

Justin Trudeau has managed his relationship with Trump in addition to anybody might. Pipelines, metal, aluminum, agriculture and forestry merchandise will proceed to be on Trump’s agenda and will likely be commerce irritants between the 2 international locations.

The truth is that Canadian pursuits — whether or not on commerce, international local weather change, international affairs or different issues — don’t align with America’s, whatever the president in energy.

A President Biden, then again, will imply a interval of uncertainty as a brand new administration takes cost. But when Trump stays in energy, there will likely be little ambiguity within the Canada-U.S. relationship.

Canada and the battleground states

As in 2016, this election will likely be determined by a trio of battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. The ballots are nonetheless being counted, however Biden has been declared the winner in Wisconsin, although Trump is demanding a recount. Trump gained all three states in 2016, which helped carry him to victory.

These swing states are important as a result of they routinely shift between voting for the Democratic presidential nominee and the Republican nominee. Most states vote for a similar celebration election after election. California, for instance, with its 55 electoral school votes (greater than one-fifth all of the electoral votes wanted to change into president), has overwhelmingly voted Democrat for many years. With little chance of that altering, each Biden and Trump did virtually no campaigning in California.

In distinction, Ohio — one of many battleground states gained handily by Trump this election — sways forwards and backwards between Democrats and Republicans. And since 1944, the state has solely as soon as voted for the dropping candidate, selecting Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960.

On this Oct. 21, 1960, photograph, John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon debate in a New York studio.

(AP Picture)

These battleground states — a few of them lining the Canadian border — performed an outsized function on this marketing campaign. Trump and Biden did most of their campaigning in these states through the previous months figuring out that each vote they might receive counted.

Trump’s “America First” insurance policies resonate with voters alongside the northern border, some dwelling so near Canada that they might think about the lack of their meeting plant or farm to a international entity, as outlandish and unlikely as that will appear to Canadians.

Maybe sooner or later Trudeau may have the chance to remind Trump, if he wins re-election, that his second time period was in giant measure attributable to help from the states with the closest financial and cultural ties to Canada.

Trump’s imprint on the U.S.

Past his populist type, Trump may have 4 extra years to go away deep marks on America ought to he win a second time period. He’s the one individual ever elected president with out prior authorities or navy expertise. He’s the oldest individual to function president.

Throughout his tenure, three Supreme Courtroom justices have been confirmed, reshaping the courtroom for a era. Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Invoice Clinton solely had two justices confirmed throughout their eight-year phrases. Doubtless extra appointments might happen throughout a second time period.

The query for Trump is whether or not to hunt out new avenues to go away a legacy, or to solidify the shifts he has engineered to this point. If the previous, then working extra intently with Canada on issues akin to commerce disputes with China or immigration coverage can be cheap choices. This might definitely occur beneath a Biden presidency — Obama and Trudeau had a “bromance,” and Biden might choose up the place Obama left off by way of a optimistic working relationship along with his Canadian counterpart.

Biden and Trudeau stroll down the Corridor of Honour on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in December 2016.

THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle

Regardless, if he’s gained re-election, Trump — maybe for the primary time in his life — might really feel he has nothing extra to show. This may increasingly create openings for coverage innovation. Canadian policy-makers can be sensible to hunt to current a few of these to the White Home, akin to on tourism and regional growth which can be win-win for Canada and the U.S.

Biden and the Democrats

In some methods, Biden was an odd selection as customary bearer for Democrats desperate to painting themselves as a celebration of recent concepts and alter. The final 5 Democratic presidents — Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Invoice Clinton and Obama — have been, on common, 30 years youthful once they took workplace than Biden.

Many in Canada favor Biden to Trump. Democratic presidents have traditionally had higher private relationships with Liberal prime ministers than Republican presidents have. A Biden presidency holds the promise that Canada could possibly be handled with extra respect and care, even when the underlying disagreements stay.

Kamala Harris is seen in a highschool yearbook entry from the 1981 Westmount Secondary Faculty, in Montréal.

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephane Blais

Kamala Harris can be a vivid spot for the U.S.-Canada relationship.

No matter whether or not Biden or Trump is the winner, she’ll have a wonderful alternative to change into the Democratic presidential nominee in 4 years (ought to a President Biden choose to not run once more). Having spent her teenage years in Montréal, Canadians dismayed on the prospect of 4 extra years of Trump can search solace that the subsequent president could also be somebody with a private Canadian connection.

Thomas Klassen doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or group that might profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their educational appointment.