Within the desk beneath, you will discover the Adjusted Thor Line (ATL). ATL is a system primarily based on energy scores, pc fashions and real-time betting knowledge that I devised for figuring out line worth.

How may you presumably like Mississippi State on this spot after what we’ve seen the previous few weeks? The Bulldogs’ offense is a multitude proper now, and Mike Leach is so irate along with his roster proper now that he advised reporters after the Kentucky sport that he wants a roster purge to eliminate malcontents.

In solely three weeks within the SEC, Leach has: Beat defending champ LSU 44-34 in Baton Rouge (QB KJ Costello set the SEC-record with 623 cross yards); misplaced 21-14 to Arkansas (the Hogs’ solely SEC win of their final 22 video games); misplaced 24-2 to Kentucky (MSU’s offense failed to attain).

Mississippi State has thrown 9 interceptions and scored 14 offensive factors in its final two video games mixed. It benched Costello towards the Wildcats. His backup fared no higher. MSU’s offense was so unhealthy, so mistake-riddled — 70 passes, zero factors! — that Kentucky gained by 22 regardless of gaining a putrid 157 yards.

The shortage of offensive punch is gorgeous, however perhaps it shouldn’t be: Leach’s first Washington State crew was held to single-digits 4 occasions (although the offense was by no means held off the board totally).

You may argue that A&M is in line for a letdown spot after upsetting Florida final week. However this a crew that received whipped by Alabama two weeks in the past — overconfidence and lethargy don’t appear more likely to set on this shortly.

To remain shut towards the Aggies, Mississippi State’s offense goes to have to enhance considerably over what we’ve seen the previous weeks. That simply doesn’t appear very seemingly.

The excellent news for MSU is that RB Kylin Hill is again wholesome. The unhealthy information is that MSU’s run sport stinks even when Hill is energetic, and Hill’s 15-79-Zero receiving line towards Kentucky offers you an ideal concept how little MSU’s quarterbacks belief the receiving corps and offensive line.

The Aggies misplaced WR Caleb Chapman for the season towards Florida after he suffered a knee damage throughout a fourth-quarter landing catch. That loss stings, however gained’t be an element right here. It’s stunning however true: MSU simply doesn’t have the firepower to maintain tempo with a crew like A&M.

Georgia Southern Eagles (-30) vs. UMass Minutemen

ATL: GSU -30.1

UMass is lastly kicking off its 2020 season. For those who’re a daily reader, that ought to ring bells in your head: The system of groups opening their season towards groups which have already performed is now 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%) this season.

However the Minutemen are a special case than many different groups which have certified for that system.

On August 11 — two months in the past — UMass introduced it was canceling its season. On September 24, UMass introduced it was opting again in. A part of the reasoning there was with so many conferences opting again into the autumn — the Massive 10, Pac-12, MWC and MAC — UMass feared no opponents could be obtainable for a spring season.

So the Minutemen swiftly threw collectively a return-to-fall plan, with a plan to play “round 4 video games.” This sport wasn’t even scheduled till October 8, final Thursday! And that was as a result of Georgia Southern instantly had a gap on its schedule when Appalachian State’s COVID points compelled a postponent of that sport. This stays the one sport on UMass’ schedule!

The above system might be profitable for 2 causes: 1) The crew that’s already performed has given its opponent sport movie however not obtained any in return, 2) The crew that’s already performed most likely will get barely over-priced simply because the general public has already seen them (or vice-versa: undervaluing the crew opening its season as a result of it hasn’t).

On this case, nonetheless, UMass didn’t even comprehend it was going to be taking part in Georgia Southern till final Thursday (and didn’t even know it will be taking part in in any respect till three weeks in the past). On the day that sport was introduced, UMass HC Walt Bell didn’t actually have a depth chart to offer to the media. He intends to begin redshirt senior Mike Fallon at QB. Fallon has 40 passing years in 4 years of eligibility.

Bell and his squad, arguably the league gifted within the FBS, has had valuable little time to arrange for a triple-option offense. Final 12 months, the Minutemen received clocked 63-7 by Military, the one triple-option crew it confronted.

Georgia Southern was already ready to play on Saturday. They thought they’d be dealing with a far-stronger Appy State roster. I anticipate the Eagles to blow UMass’ doorways off.

Virginia Tech Hokies (-12.5) vs. Boston School Eagles

ATL: VT -10.5

I used to be on the Hokies +5 towards UNC final week, and received burned. I didn’t understand the extent of COVID points remaining within the locker room. In complete, 15 Hokies missed that sport. The secondary was significantly ravished, with a number of backups and two starters out.

The Hokies are closing in on having a full roster once more. A full power Virginia Tech will outclass Boston School. We’re getting a reduction right here partly as a result of Virginia Tech hasn’t performed fairly in addition to anticipated this 12 months whereas its roster has fought off COVID points. Hopefully we have no shock inactives on Saturday.

Kentucky Wildcats (+6) at Tennessee Volunteers

ATL: Tennessee -0.6

I’m not impressed with Tennessee. The offensive line has been worse than anticipated and Jarrett Guarantano by no means progressed. The Vols looks like a crew that may be capable of maintain enterprise towards unhealthy groups and get smoked by superior groups.

Kentucky is someplace within the center. However they match up nicely for a crew getting 6-points on the road.

Kentucky’s offense is proscribed by Terry Wilson’s wavering accuracy and pop-gun arm, however the Wildcats even have the identical offensive success fee as Tennessee does this season (41.5%). Tennessee’s offense is extra explosive (No. 21 vs. No. 57 EPA/play), largely as a result of UK ranks No. 70 in EPA/passing play.

Tennessee is a run-first crew, an offense that bogs down when it has problem transferring the ball on the bottom (No. 14 dashing/EPA vs. No. 41 passing/EPA). Kentucky’s power is its run protection, which ranks No. Eight EPA/run. Kentucky is especially good at limiting dashing explosion (No. 5 SP+) and in energy success fee (No. 2).

An enormous Kentucky entrance may give Tennessee’s beleaguered offensive line points. If the Vols can’t run, I’m fairly assured that Guarantano gained’t placed on the hero’s cape to save lots of Tennessee’s bacon. Kentucky’s cross protection picked off Mississippi State six occasions in final week’s 24-2 win.

The Wildcats must play higher on offense after averaging solely 2.9 YPP with a 28% offensive success fee towards the Bulldogs. Tennessee’s run protection ranks No. 30 in success fee. The Vols’ largest defensive weak point is giving up explosive passing performs.

Kentucky will spring the upset if Wilson can hit a pair deep pictures interspersed between the smash-mouth stuff. Tennessee has been terrible just lately in precisely this spot. The Vols are 3-11 ATS of their previous 14 as favorites towards FBS groups.

Syracuse Orange (+3.5) vs. Liberty Flames

ATL: Syracuse -4.2

This line has entice written throughout it: How on earth is Liberty seen as 3.5-points higher than Syracuse — on the street?! I don’t care. If Liberty beats Syracuse by 4 or extra, take my cash. Some bargains are too good to cross up.

Syracuse is down QB Tommy DeVito and star S Andre Cisco. Each are seemingly performed for the season. Cisco’s loss hurts unhealthy — however he’s already missed two video games. Syracuse will begin QB Rex Culpepper with DeVito out. There isn’t a giant qualitative distinction between the 2.

The resurgent Liberty Flames are 4-0. QB Malik Willis, an Auburn switch, is a star — a dual-threat who’s thrown for 595 yards and run for 340. The Flames blew out UL-Monroe 40-7 final week as 18-point favorites. Outdoors of that, Liberty snuck by FIU by two, WKU by six and beat an FCS crew. I needn’t inform you that that is the other of a assassin’s row.

In response to ESPN, non-Energy 5 groups favored on the street towards P5 groups are 10-5-2 ATS since 2015. However simply final 12 months, Liberty misplaced by 10 to Rutgers as a 7.5-road favourite. That Rutgers crew was worse than this Syracuse squad.

Syracuse (1-3) has no less than overwhelmed a good crew — Georgia Tech — and so they did it with out Cisco, on zero discover. Liberty, which hasn’t, is making a giant step up in competitors, and so they’re doing it on the street.

DeVito or no DeVito, I feel Syracuse’s offense lastly will get occurring Saturday.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-6) at UTEP Miners

ATL: USM 11.9

Pure line worth play. ATL believes the Golden Eagles ought to be favored by 12. We’re getting practically a free landing on the road.

One different fascinating notice: Per Brad Powers, traces that transfer 5 or extra factors off Circa World Openers are 26-12-1 towards the opening line. Southern Miss opened at -1 earlier than shortly getting juiced to -6.5 at that e-book.

The road nonetheless isn’t precisely reflecting actuality. There is a important expertise discrepancy between these two rosters.

Arkansas Razorbacks (+3) vs. Ole Miss

ATL: Ole Miss -1.3

You guys know I like this Ole Miss crew. Nevertheless it’s come time to fade them.

The Rebels are coping with COVID points proper now — the extent to which we presently don’t know. However Ole Miss isn’t going to be at full power on Saturday. They’re additionally coming off a deflating loss, placing up 48 factors and 647 yards however shedding by 15 to the Alabama Crimson Tide final week.

Ole Miss has performed the toughest SP+ schedule within the nation, Florida, Kentucky and Alabama. Between the gauntlet and the virus, I feel this units as much as a down week for them. Particularly in lieu of the matchup.

The Rebels are averaging 41.6 PPG and rank No. 5 in EPA/play, No. Three in cross/EPA, No. 2 in passing success fee and No. 10 in passing explosion regardless of the tough schedule. However the Rebels’ protection is rancid — No. 76 in dashing success fee towards and No. 75 in passing success fee towards.

Arkansas’ protection has been rather a lot higher than anticipated. Most significantly, its power is cross protection. The Hogs rank No. 10 within the nation in cross/EPA towards and No. Three in SP+ marginal explosiveness towards. Ole Miss’ passing offense strikes the ball on everybody — however Arkansas goes to power them to methodically transfer the ball down the sphere with quick-hitters.

Arkansas’ play-calling, directed by OC Kendal Briles, has been nearly as spectacular as Ole Miss’. Arkansas ought to be 2-1 proper now however misplaced to Auburn when SEC officers incorrectly dominated {that a} backwards Bo Nix attempted-spike wasn’t a fumble final week. The spike was granted, and Auburn ended up kicking a game-winning area objective to win 30-28.

Arkansas was with out prime sources of offense RB Rakeem Boyd and WR Treylon Burks in that sport. Each are questionable for this weekend — however every has a shot to return. Ole Miss’ protection is about as unhealthy as its offense. Artistic play-calling alone will enable Feleipe Franks to maneuver the ball on that unit. If Franks has Boyd or Burks again, all the higher.

UCF Knights (-3.5) at Memphis Tigers

ATL: UCF -6.3

Why is Memphis nonetheless getting this a lot respect?

Two weeks in the past, Memphis was in UCF’s spot proper now, favored by 3.5 on the street towards SMU. The Mustangs managed that sport and gained by three regardless of shedding star WR Reggie Roberson and RB TJ McDaniel.

The Knights are 4-9 ATS of their final 13 video games regardless of its run of dominance. Why? Since you all the time need to pay a tax to guess on UCF.

Not anymore. Not after UCF was upset by Tulsa. This time, for the primary time in I don’t know the way lengthy, you should purchase UCF at a reduction. By the estimation of ATL, you’re getting a free area objective on what the sticker worth ought to be.

Take it. This Memphis squad will not be as robust as lately, partly due to expertise misplaced over the offseason, partly due to teaching workers upheaval, and partly due to opt-outs. However the Tigers are nonetheless being priced like an elite G5 crew.

I feel UCF will present Memphis what an elite G5 crew seems like on Saturday in a must-win spot off the disappointing loss to Tulsa.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+14) at UAB Blazers

ATL: UAB -7.0

Western Kentucky is simply 1-3. Their solely win was a three-point squeaker over lowly Center Tennessee. However I nonetheless assume they’re a good crew, and an undervalued crew.

WKU had a 14-point loss to Louisville (Louisville benefited from a collection of explosive scoring performs) and a six-point setback towards undefeated Liberty earlier this season earlier than shedding to Marshall 38-14 final week. WKU went 2-for-12 on third downs, misplaced the turnover battle by three (WKU misplaced three fumbles!) and received outplayed on particular groups.

However simply when it comes to offense vs. protection sport mechanics, WKU hung — ending just under Marshall in each success fee and YPP. That’s simply one other datapoint that the Hilltoppers can cling with robust groups. Anticipate WKU to equally cling with UAB.

West Virginia Mountaineers (-22.5) vs. Kansas Jayhawks

ATL: WVU -22.5

This College of Kansas alum shall be betting towards the Jayhawks (0-Three SU, 0-Three ATS) till they cowl a sport.

I might quite not discuss it additional, if it is all the identical to you.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs

ATL: Bama -4.5

I’m extra involved for Nick Saban the individual than I’m for Alabama having to play with out him on the sideline attributable to his COVID analysis.

Saban is a program builder. The in-game stuff, Steve Sarkisian, the architect of this ludicrous offense, shall be a high-quality fill-in. Sark is the previous coach of Washington and USC.

Alabama’s subject is its protection. Georgia’s subject is its game-manager quarterback.

The query it’s important to ask your self: Can Georgia’s protection maintain Alabama to 28 factors or beneath? If it might probably’t, do you actually anticipate Stetson Bennett to be prepared to have interaction in a firefight with Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and firm?

Bennett ranks behind solely Jones and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral in QBR this 12 months. However there’s an unlimited distinction between taking part in with a lead towards first rate groups and taking part in from behind towards elite ones. Alabama ranks No. 1 within the nation with 51 PPG,No. 2 with 385 passing YPG, No. Three with 560 offensive YPG and No. 1 (by far) with 8.6 YPP.

This sport might nicely come all the way down to how successfully Alabama can maintain Georgia out of its personal backfield. The Bulldogs rank No. 1 within the nation with 72 quarterback pressures by means of three video games (10 sacks and 17 TFL). Understand that Georgia hasn’t precisely confronted an offensive gauntlet: Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee, with two of these video games at house.

These squads common comparable floor yards per sport, however Alabama’s Harris-led floor assault is best. Georgia’s Zamir White hasn’t gotten going but this 12 months. The Bulldogs are relying on James Prepare dinner returning this week.

Georgia ranks No. 5 within the nation with 12.Three PPG allowed and No. 1 in dashing protection. The cross protection ranks No. 21, not fairly pretty much as good. And it’s the cross protection that must be flawless to sluggish Alabama’s fleet receivers. I do not see that occuring.

2020: 21-18-1 (53.8%) ATS

Lifetime (2014-Current): 561-487-17 (53.5%) ATS

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