Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko takes the oath of workplace throughout an unannounced inauguration ceremony Sept. 23 in Minsk. Andrei StasevichTASS by way of Getty Pictures

As if a fraudulent election and months of mass protest weren’t sufficient drama for Belarus, its embattled authoritarian chief went forward and inaugurated himself as president in a secretive Sept. 23 ceremony, held with out prior announcement or dwell tv broadcast.

This begins Alexander Lukashenko’s sixth time period as president, a minimum of in line with Lukashenko and government-controlled Belarusian media. However the Belarusian folks and a minimum of 15 nations – together with the US, Canada and Germany – say the nation’s Aug. 9 presidential election was rigged and refuse to acknowledge Lukashenko as its rightful chief. The election delivered him 80% of the vote, an impossibly favorable consequence given the clear fashionable discontent along with his regime.

Whereas supposed to guarantee Lukashenko’s future, the key inauguration seems to be backfiring.

Crumbling legitimacy

Lukashenko didn’t invite international diplomats or dignitaries to his self-declared inauguration ceremony. Only some hundred hand-picked regime insiders attended.

Not even Russia, Lukashenko’s major booster after the disputed presidential vote, was conscious of the deliberate inauguration ceremony. Moscow, just like the Belarusian folks, realized Lukashenko had assumed the presidency solely after the very fact.

In Belarus, information of the self-inauguration triggered widespread new demonstrations on the street. On-line, folks staged satirical inauguration “flash mobs,” dressing up and inaugurating themselves with fictional titles.

Girls don their very own crowns after Lukashenko’s secret inauguration Sept. 23.

Natalia FedosenkoTASS by way of Getty Pictures

One other mass protest, dubbed the “folks’s inauguration of the true president,” was held Sept. 27 to declare Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya – Lukashenko’s major election rival – because the nation’s respectable chief.

Lukashenko’s stunt has left him remoted, each regionally and internationally.

In coordination with neighboring Estonia and Lithuania, Latvia introduced on Sept. 25 it had imposed an indefinite entry ban on 101 Belarusian officers. The European Union is contemplating sanctions in opposition to about 40 high-level Belarusian officers, together with the nation’s inside minister. The U.S., Canada and the U.Okay. all say they might impose sanctions inside days.

Shortly after the disputed election, Russia gave Belarus a US$1.5 billion emergency mortgage. That was a lifeline to Lukashenko’s regime, although not sufficient to avoid wasting a tanking financial system. As soon as a tech-startup magnet, Minsk is now seeing firms flee.

What’s subsequent

As an Japanese Europe researcher who was born and raised in Belarus, I can attest this isn’t the primary time Lukashenko has been at odds with the world.

The previous 4 presidential elections in Belarus – all of which Lukashenko received with upwards of 80% of the vote – weren’t acknowledged as free and truthful. The Belarusian authorities was sanctioned for falsifying ends in 2006 and 2010.

However this time feels totally different. In an unprecedented political disaster, all Europe is uniting round severe sanctions supposed to strain high regime officers into reconsidering their help of Lukashenko. Sanctions additionally successfully give Belarus’ pro-democracy protesters a global stamp of approval.

Since 1994, populist Lukashenko has rested his legitimacy on his mission to offer stability and shield the widespread folks. Now, amid months of protests, he’s pressured to depend on coercion and violence to remain in energy.

Ever for the reason that contested August election, crushing dissent has been Lukashenko’s major technique for staying in energy.

Tut.By/AFP by way of Getty Pictures

However analysis reveals that repression alone is simply too pricey a way of sustaining authoritarian rule. Even dictatorial regimes want a sure stage of legitimacy to outlive.

The truth that Lukashenko felt compelled to carry a tiny, secret inauguration ceremony means that even he is aware of he’s in bother. At this level, Lukashenko’s destiny in all probability depends upon Vladimir Putin, who has taken a wait-and-see angle about his fellow post-Soviet strongman.

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After Lukashenko’s secret inauguration, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, refused to touch upon what he referred to as an “inside choice of the Belarusian management.”

If Putin continues to help the Belarusian ruler it could in all probability guarantee Lukashenko stays in energy. However there’s a price for Russia to intervening in Belarusian affairs, significantly if which means aiding in Lukashenko’s violent crackdown on protesters.

Doing so would pit Putin in opposition to Europe, and will push Belarusians who search a better political voice away from Russia and towards the West.

Tatsiana Kulakevich doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or group that may profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their educational appointment.