As Prime Minister Boris Johnson heads to Brussels to attempt to transfer the EU-UK negotiations to a conclusion of their dying days, it’s price remembering one easy truth: the problems which can be inflicting issues now are the identical ones which have at all times been obstacles to a deal.

If the Article 50 talks that ran between 2017 and 2019 had been all about ending UK membership of the European Union, then the present negotiations have been about creating a brand new relationship between the 2 sides. Whereas the previous handled the rights of residents in one another’s territory and the administration of the Irish dimension, the latter has been targeted on extra basic buying and selling preparations and the extent to which the UK desires to stay aligned with EU guidelines sooner or later.

When these talks began in March of this yr, three essential sticking factors had been instantly apparent from the acknowledged positions of the British authorities and the European Fee.

Fisheries

First, and maybe least, is the query of fisheries. As a potent image of the failings of EU membership because the 1970s, with depletion of shares and ever extra of the catch being taken by non-UK vessels, it’s not so stunning that the UK desires to be out of any obligations to retain components of the Frequent Fisheries Coverage. “British waters for British fishermen” can also be one of many simpler slogans to promote to a public that is perhaps in any other case misplaced within the intricacies of all this.

Against this, the EU want to retain its entry, partly as a result of a lot of the UK catch finally ends up on European plates but in addition as a result of the preparations for fisheries administration it proposes are extra strong and enforceable than the extra regular mannequin of cooperation that exists. Both means, the EU has grounded its arguments within the language of customary observe, which issues so much within the legislation of the ocean: mainly, how issues had been needs to be a robust information to how issues will likely be.

Whereas evocative, fisheries stays a tiny a part of both aspect’s financial exercise. So whereas it would make for punning headlines, it’s unlikely to be the factor that makes or breaks this all. As well as, it has the nice benefit that compromises could be present in a variety of alternative ways, which makes it a perfect chip in balancing the opposite two, extra elementary issues.

Degree taking part in subject

Of those, the “stage taking part in subject” can have essentially the most rapid and apparent influence. In essence, that is merely about whether or not the 2 sides can agree that they received’t use a weakening of requirements on issues like environmental safety or employees’ rights to make items and companies extra aggressive after Brexit.

The EU is anxious that when the UK is now not beholden to the commitments that include EU membership, it would begin a race to the underside on requirements. That may have main penalties for EU producers, given the dimensions and proximity of the UK.

Against this, the British authorities worries that the extent taking part in subject is a way to proceed the obligations of membership even after the UK has left the EU. Whereas the federal government says it has no plans to chop again on protections, it feels it solely proper that it ought to have the choice to take action, extra on precept than on want.

The hole right here has been a lot much less bridgeable than fish, as a result of there are only a few methods to chop this up. Both you’re committing to comply with the opposite aspect’s requirements, otherwise you’re not. And on condition that no matter occurs on this can have an effect on your entire financial system, it’s not one thing that may merely be brushed underneath the carpet, particularly given the shortage of belief in talks proper now.

Dispute settlement

And it’s that scarcity of belief that drives the ultimate challenge: governance and dispute settlement. The large sweep of the Brexit course of because the 2016 referendum has been one in all relations worsening, quite than bettering, between London and Brussels. At each main juncture, the UK has acted in ways in which raised elementary questions for the EU about whether or not the nation is performing, and even can act, in good religion.

Because of this, the EU desires to have the ability to be certain that any deal has a sturdy and efficient enforcement mechanism. That includes each using the EU’s Court docket of Justice to pronounce on issues of EU legislation and a cross-retaliation mechanism. This latter is the notion that non-compliance in a single space of any agreed cooperation could be met with penalties in one other: so not sticking to fishing quotas would possibly see tariffs on automobiles, for instance.

In addition to arguing that its phrase is bond, the UK has taken the view that, as a non-member of the EU, it can not nonetheless be sure by the EU’s authorized order, and that any issues needs to be contained inside their very own subject, quite than doubtlessly contaminating your entire relationship. A lot as with the extent taking part in subject component, there aren’t many choices right here, and the UK’s case is comparatively weak, given the practices in different fashionable free commerce agreements around the globe. Maybe some wording to underline that the EU court docket’s position could be contained to interpretation of the that means of EU legislation solely would possibly assist, however that hasn’t been sufficient till now.

And this brings us again to the beginning: none of that is new. 9 months of intense negotiation haven’t solved any of those three components, so it’s laborious to see how any new options is perhaps produced by a (doubtlessly temporary) assembly between Johnson and European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen.

Which is perhaps the purpose. If a deal is to come back collectively, then it’s greater than prone to be constructed from the options that had been recognized lengthy beforehand. What is going to differ is that it is a political second – a time when the chance to decorate all this in wonderful rhetoric and demonstrative motion would possibly overcome the technical awkwardness and negotiating compromises.

Simon Usherwood has beforehand acquired funding from the Financial and Social Analysis Council, as Deputy Director of the "UK in a Altering Europe" programme, 2017-19. He sits on the tutorial advisory board of Trendy Europe. The views expressed on this article don’t mirror these of the analysis councils.