When Donald Trump examined optimistic for COVID-19 on October 2 and was hospitalised a day later it was broadly assumed this may put a significant crimp in his re-election marketing campaign. Within the occasion, the US president recovered fairly rapidly and returned to the marketing campaign path with gusto after a sometimes bullish photo-op as he arrived again on the White Home.

However survey proof – preliminary findings from that are printed right here for the primary time – reveals that, regardless of having apparently triumphed over the virus, he didn’t escape the grasp of COVID-19 and that his dealing with of the pandemic performed an important function in his defeat within the November Three election.

COVID-19’s horrific toll on human life and its devastating results on tens of millions of individuals’s financial and psychological wellbeing have turn out to be omnipresent realities. So it’s hardly stunning that the College of Texas at Dallas’ nationwide Cometrends survey, which was carried out within the two weeks earlier than the presidential election, signifies that the pandemic was the dominant situation on many citizens’ minds.

Graph 1: Vital points dealing with the nation, October 2020.

Supply: Cometrends October 2020 pre-election survey, Creator offered

As the primary graph, above, reveals, 62% of two,500 respondents cited the COVID disaster as one of many prime three points dealing with the nation, whereas 39% mentioned it was the one most vital. No different situation – not even the ailing economic system – was chosen as most vital by one particular person in 5.

The salience of the pandemic as a difficulty was a significant drawback for Trump as a result of an awesome variety of voters judged that he had mishandled the disaster. Because the second graph, beneath, reveals, two-thirds of the Cometrends survey respondents mentioned that they disapproved of the president’s response, whereas just one particular person in 4 authorised. When given one other probability to touch upon his pandemic efficiency later within the survey, 51% mentioned it had been “dangerous” or “horrible” and solely 38% mentioned “good” or “glorious”.

Graph 2: Approval of Trump’s job efficiency on most vital situation.

Supply: Cometrends October 2020 pre-election survey, Creator offered

These dismal scores for the president on coronavirus have been fairly reverse to these for the economic system – amongst individuals who thought the economic system was a very powerful situation, 69% authorised of the job the president was doing and solely 25% disapproved. Though this was excellent news for Trump, solely a comparatively small minority (17%) of voters gave the economic system prime billing as their most vital situation. Furthermore, he couldn’t depend on varied different points to enhance his job approval score – throughout all points aside from the pandemic, solely 41% authorised of the president’s efficiency in contrast with 50% who disapproved.

Graph 3: Likelihood of voting for Trump by significance of COVID-19 situation.

with statistical controls for different points, partisanship, ideology and demographics.

Supply: Cometrends October 2020 pre-election survey, Creator offered

The third graph, above, reveals clearly that if electors weren’t that involved in regards to the pandemic they have been extra prone to vote for Trump as president. But when they gave the difficulty the highest precedence they have been a lot much less seemingly to take action. The graph illustrates the influence of COVID-19 on voting for the president, whereas on the identical time statistically bearing in mind a variety of different elements that affect voting behaviour.

The latter embrace attitudes to the economic system, the surroundings, healthcare, regulation and order and race relations, in addition to different vital measures comparable to identifications with the Democratic and Republican events, liberal-conservative ideological views and socio-demographic traits. The likelihood of voting for Trump is simply 42% amongst voters who thought COVID-19 was a very powerful situation however 53% amongst those that prioritised another situation within the prime three.

This sample is the alternative for that of the economic system. Greater than three-quarters of voters who gave prime precedence to the economic system supported Trump. That quantity fell to lower than one in three amongst these for whom financial situations weren’t a significant concern.

These numbers are almost an identical to these for the massive group of potential swing voters who consider themselves as political independents and haven’t any attachment to both of the events. Independents giving prime precedence to the pandemic made up almost 13% of the voters within the Cometrends survey and, different issues being equal, the likelihood of them voting for Trump was very mediocre, at simply barely over 40%.

Recreation-changing virus

As he was getting ready for the 2020 marketing campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasised that his case for re-election was strengthened by his demonstrated capability to ship financial prosperity. Hovering inventory costs and document low unemployment numbers for a lot of teams of voters together with ethnic and racial minorities, girls and younger individuals have been serving to the president to make his case. Then the pandemic got here alongside and profoundly modified America and the election-year situation agenda.

Because the election date of November Three approached, most individuals specializing in the economic system because the primary precedence continued to provide Trump excessive marks. However these individuals have been now a definite minority of the citizens. COVID-19 had turn out to be the dominant situation for tens of millions of People and our survey proof strongly signifies that the majority of them judged Trump very harshly for the way he was dealing with the disaster. In lots of circumstances, these hostile judgements translated into votes for Trump’s opponent, Joe Biden.

Trump could have recovered bodily from COVID-19. However his prospects of re-election took a physique blow that he wouldn’t get well from.

Paul Whiteley receives funding from the British Academy and the Financial and Social Analysis Council.

Harold D Clarke has acquired funding from the Nationwide Science Basis (US).

Karl Ho receives funding from Hong Kong Analysis Grants Council, Taiwan Ministry of Training, Taiwan Fellowship.

Marianne Stewart receives funding from Nationwide Science Foundaton (US).