Amidst the drama of a large surge in mail-in voting, a shocking state may present some sense of normality on election evening.

What’s at stake

Others could come and go, however for now, Florida stays the last word swing state. However Texas’s entry this 12 months into the toss-up column, it’s the largest and due to this fact most precious state during which each events persistently have an excellent likelihood.

It additionally has a fame for chaos, largely as a result of recollections of the 2000 Bush v Gore recount farrago stay all too contemporary – significantly for the Democrats. The state has by no means since supplied something like that degree of drama, however with 29 electoral votes at stake, it ought to by no means be counted out.

Final time round

It was Hillary Clinton’s rust belt catastrophe that outlined the election evening in 2016, and Florida wouldn’t have made up for the 46 electoral votes she misplaced in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Nonetheless, her loss there was galling – a failure to shut the hole in a state she had fought for lengthy and arduous.

Learn extra: The Electoral Faculty, defined

There have been lower than 120,000 votes in it, a margin of 1.2 factors, however by Florida requirements, that hardly counts as a nail-biter.

On the bottom

Florida is ruled by a dependable Trump ally, Ron DeSantis, who has sided heartily with the president all through the coronavirus pandemic, reopening his state early in the summertime and battling criticism when instances spiked sharply shortly afterwards.

The governor and his administration have since confronted criticism over the state’s meeting of its coronavirus knowledge, which collates figures reminiscent of take a look at positivity fairly otherwise than most mainstream monitoring tasks.

Learn extra: Must you belief the polls in 2020?

Additionally an issue in Florida is the safety of election techniques. Mr DeSantis went to vote this week solely to find that his main tackle had been modified with out his information. The change was investigated and a person shortly afterwards charged with voter fraud.

The house stretch

Mr Trump badly wants Florida, which he refers to as his dwelling state and the place he additionally votes (albeit often by mail, though he voted in particular person this time round). However polls present Joe Biden clinging to a slender lead, elevating the prospect that the president might want to fill a 29-vote gap in his Electoral Faculty complete with many extra states additionally within the stability.

Learn extra: The presidents who misplaced a second time period

Florida might also play a key stabilising function on Election Night time. Mr Trump has recently been demanding that the results of the election be recognized on the evening, ignoring each the legislation and the realities of counting votes in a 12 months the place mail voting is surging dramatically.

However Florida is anticipated to rely rapidly – and whether it is referred to as for Mr Biden comparatively early within the evening, it would instantly turn out to be more durable for Mr Trump to discover a strategy to victory.