The Los Angeles Lakers anticipated to be right here. They’ve been title favorites for the reason that season tipped off. LeBron James personally and the Lakers as a company are used to this highlight.

No person anticipated the Denver Nuggets to be right here. Their coaches and gamers will say they did, however they had been just about alone on that island.

After two dramatic comebacks from 3-1 down in a sequence, Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets have earned their shot on the massive canine, LeBron and the Lakers. It’s the Western Convention Finals, and whereas perhaps not the one everybody anticipated, it’s an attention-grabbing one none-the-less. Recreation 1 suggestions off on Friday.

Can Denver pull off one other massive upset of a Los Angeles workforce? Listed below are 5 essential areas to observe this sequence (with a prediction thrown in on the finish).

1) Who do the Lakers should cowl Jamal Murray?

After a sequence the place he felt smothered by lengthy, athletic, aggressive Clippers defenders, Jamal Murray broke out in Recreation 7 with 40 factors (when the Clippers needed to focus extra on Jokic). Murray regarded like the damaging, aggressive three-level scorer he had been in opposition to Utah — the man he’s going to wish a for Denver to have an opportunity this sequence.

The Lakers have pure matchups and have had success going in opposition to Jokic (extra on that coming, maintain studying), however with Avery Bradley selecting to take a seat out the restart, the Lakers don’t have an apparent, pure defender for Murray. In the course of the regular-season conferences, Murray was proper about at his season scoring common in opposition to the Lakers (though he struggled from three), however within the playoffs he has stepped up his recreation. And his three-ball has been falling.

The Lakers, however, have seen high guards all playoffs lengthy — Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, James Harden, Russell Westbrook — and each one in every of them noticed their scoring common drop in opposition to a Lakers workforce taking part in the very best protection of any West workforce within the bubble. Within the case of Murray, anticipate Frank Vogel to go together with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and a few quickness to strain the ball out high — take the three away and power Murray to drive into assist, the place the Laker size and sharp defensive rotations could make him much less environment friendly.

If Denver goes to tug the upset, Murray must break via that and appear like the man who tormented Utah within the first spherical.

2) Who wins Nikola Jokic vs. Anthony Davis and the Lakers’ facilities matchup?

With all due respect to Karl-Anthony Cities and Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic is the very best offensive heart within the recreation immediately. His capability to shoot the three makes Denver a workforce that may play five-out and maintain the paint clear for penetration. He can rating within the publish, has a midrange recreation, and (it doesn’t matter what Mark Jackson says on the printed) is the very best passing massive man the sport has ever seen. Denver’s gamers make good cuts and transfer off the ball when Jokic has it on the elbow as a result of they know they are going to be rewarded. Jokic is the fulcrum of the offense and deserved his All-NBA nod.

The Lakers match up comparatively nicely right here. They’ve the defenders to gradual Jokic down and did so within the regular-season conferences. Laker coach Frank Vogel has stated he would return to extra of his conventional facilities — whether or not that each JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, or simply McGee to start out stays to be seen — however he is aware of as a backup he has an elite defender in Anthony Davis. It labored throughout the common season when the Lakers held Jokic three factors under his season scoring common and reduce his rebounds down as nicely.

Most significantly, Davis and his capability to hit the three will draw Jokic out of the paint and power him to defend on the perimeter, the place Jokic can nonetheless be exploited. Davis can also go proper on the Denver massive man and get him in foul hassle.

As nice as Jokic is, that is probably an Anthony Davis sequence, the place he’s probably the most dominant participant on the court docket. If that occurs, Denver is in actual hassle.

3) How will Denver’s protection maintain up when the Lakers go mismatch looking?

Denver’s protection within the playoffs has been stable, their rim safety improved from the common season, however it has flaws. Jokic just isn’t nice on the perimeter. Michael Porter Jr., for all his athleticism and some defensive performs, will get misplaced on pick-and-roll defenses. Gary Harris could be exploited within the pick-and-roll.

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For causes no one understands — least of all their followers — the Clippers not often attacked these mismatches. The playoffs are speculated to be about matchups, however the Clippers simply stored doing their regular-season factor.

LeBron James will hunt mismatches. Mercilessly.

So will Rajon Rondo and the remainder of the Lakers. Denver will probably begin with Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap on LeBron, with a heavy dose of Torrey Craig off the bench, however LeBron and Davis are going to run pick-and-rolls and power Jokic to modify (a win for Los Angeles) or present out and get better (additionally a win for Los Angeles with Davis’ ability and LeBron’s passing). The Lakers aren’t going to let Jokic play again and clog the paint. Additionally, search for the Lakers to get Murray switched on to LeBron, then ship LeBron to the publish — the Lakers’ star is elite there, Murray is overmatched.

Porter Jr. won’t be able to cover on the court docket — when he’s not defending a pick-and-roll on-ball he can be coping with pin-downs and different off-ball actions chasing Kyle Kuzma round. If he loses focus (as he tends to do), the Lakers will torch him.

Denver’s protection has been good within the playoffs, however it needs to be significantly better on this sequence to have an opportunity.

4) Can the Nuggets maintain LeBron and the Lakers out of transition?

Tempo is one thing to observe this sequence. No workforce added extra factors per 100 possessions via transition this season than the Lakers, and the Lakers have began the next proportion of their offense in transition than every other workforce within the playoffs (16.5% of their performs begin that means, stats by way of Cleansing the Glass). Denver has been an improved halfcourt protection this postseason, however their transition protection is the worst of any of the groups left within the dance.

Regardless of the odd Jokic soccer outlet go (a real factor of magnificence), Denver desires to gradual the sport down. If the Lakers get stops then quick buckets going the opposite means — with LeBron main the break like a freight prepare —the Nuggets will wrestle to maintain up on the scoreboard.

5) Who will dominate factors within the paint?

If there’s one stat to trace this sequence, factors within the paint — or, higher but, photographs on the rim — is it.

The postseason Lakers have been in assault mode: Los Angeles has taken the next proportion of its photographs on the rim than any workforce within the playoffs. By far. Denver permits photographs on the rim within the playoffs however has executed a greater job contesting (groups shoot 63% in opposition to Denver within the restricted space within the playoffs, which is in regards to the league common). Nonetheless, the Nuggets haven’t needed to face a workforce but that assaults the rim with finishers like LeBron and Davis.

Return and watch the regular-season conferences between these groups, and the Lakers owned the Nuggets on the rim. Denver has to maintain the Lakers out of the paint. It’s simply not that straightforward to do.

Prediction: Lakers in 5. Denver has impressed these playoffs and deserves to be talked about with the league’s elite, however Los Angeles is a foul matchup for them. LeBron can have all of the espresso he desires — he’s a better of the best order. The Nuggets can’t fall behind on this sequence and bounce again.

Lakers vs. Nuggets preview: 5 essential areas to observe initially appeared on NBCSports.com