Every week of the season brings with it a brand new set of questions. Right here, we’ll try to put out 5 of probably the most urgent within the NFL. The solutions to these will reveal deeper truths about how the remainder of the story of the 2020 season will unfold. We’ll discover that these revelations may have an enduring affect on not simply fantasy managers, however the league as a complete.
1 – Which protection steps up in Kansas Metropolis vs. Buffalo?
When two of the perfect offenses of the 2020 season sq. off in Week 6, your consideration ought to truly be targeted on the opposite facet of the ball. How the Chiefs and Payments defenses carry out on this matchup will inform us way more about who will win this recreation and the right way to undertaking these groups going ahead.
On steadiness, the Chiefs’ protection has been the far superior unit this 12 months. Whereas they won’t put a lot inventory of their run cease unit, Kansas Metropolis ranks second as a move protection in Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA. They create a ton of havoc, recording the fourth-highest strain fee within the NFL. That mentioned, they’re coming off their worst efficiency of the season after letting Derek Carr and the Raiders drop deep heaters on them final Sunday.
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the opposite passing recreation belongings in Buffalo can definitely rip by means of those self same holes Carr and Henry Ruggs discovered.
In Buffalo, they’re recent off getting shredded by the Titans on Tuesday night time to the tune of 5 touchdowns. The cease unit has performed effectively beneath the usual set through the Sean McDermott period. After two pristine runs in 2018 and 2019, Buffalo ranks 24th in passing yards allowed and 31st in dashing success fee allowed.
[Week 6 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]
The Raiders put a very good blueprint collectively for how one can a minimum of preserve the scoring onslaught of Patrick Mahomes and firm at bay. Las Vegas labored to get strain with their entrance 4, realizing that sending additional rushers at Mahomes is barely asking for him to reap the benefits of the additional home windows. He confronted the blitz on simply two dropbacks, the bottom of any Week 5 beginning quarterback.
To ensure that the Payments to observe that script, they’ll should be introspective. The workforce sports activities the fourth-highest blitz fee (40.6 p.c) but it surely hasn’t helped them a lot; Buffalo is bottom-10 in pressures (37). If Buffalo rolls out the identical previous protection they’ve all 12 months, Mahomes will shred them.
As soon as Mahomes and the passing recreation get an early lead, simply neglect about it. It’s over.
Enjoying with a scoreboard benefit simply brings out the perfect within the Chiefs offense. In the event that they’re in a position to function with that lead, they’ll observe the identical playbook of all the opposite groups who’ve shredded Buffalo’s run protection. Talking of which, the Chiefs simply signed former All-Professional working again Le’Veon Bell however with COVID-19 testing restrictions, he isn’t in a position to swimsuit up for them in Week 6. That leaves rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire in his regular workhorse function for one final week. On condition that he has bankable landing regression coming his manner, it’s a very good time to financial institution on him hitting a top-five ceiling efficiency.
2 – Who’s the subsequent shock rookie WR to emerge?
If there’s one factor I obtained fallacious this 12 months (high quality — there was multiple factor) it was the event tempo for rookie huge receivers. You’d suppose in a truncated offseason, these guys would come on slower.
Improper.
A number of rookie receivers have netted dividends for his or her groups already. Frankly, it appears like a brand new one emerges as a key piece every week. CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Tee Higgins have all had their moments — and now Chase Claypool is out right here scoring 4 touchdowns.
For our functions, we wish to know: Who’s subsequent?
A robust candidate is Jaguars receiver, Laviska Shenault Jr.
Will Lavishka Shenault have a blow-up recreation quickly? (Photograph by Sam Greenwood/Getty Photos)
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It’s not as if Shenault has accomplished nothing in 2020. He trails solely Lamb and Jefferson in yards amongst rookie receivers and has been an element within the floor recreation. Nonetheless, it’s been extra regular contributions reasonably than a giant breakout recreation. A number of analysts touted him heading into the Jaguars TNF loss to Miami however after just a few splash performs to begin, he pale to a 34-total-yardage outing.
Week 6 units up one other alternative for Shenault to shine. The Jaguars will welcome a Detroit protection that’s 28th in yards per play allowed. Shenault is coming off a season-high in each routes run (37) and targets (eight) final week. He ought to draw a begin this week with D.J. Chark doubtless on the shelf because of an ankle damage.
This might be the week Shenault joins guys like Claypool and Henry Ruggs as current breakout rookies.
3 – Who is that this week’s Brandin Cooks?
Final week Brandin Cooks match the profile of a man who was nonetheless fully concerned in his offense regardless of his manufacturing coming to a screeching halt. He had run a route on over 80 p.c of Deshaun Watson’s dropbacks however was coming off a zero-spot in opposition to Minnesota. In the event you ignored that and simply chased the taking part in time, you had been rewarded with a 161-yard, 1-touchdown line.
Let’s spin ahead to take a look at one other participant who has been painfully quiet however nonetheless taking part in a ton.
Lions receiver Marvin Jones has caught all of 12 passes to date this season. Regardless of No. 1 receiver Kenny Golladay lacking time to begin 2020, Jones hasn’t popped up for a giant recreation. Nonetheless, he’s been on the market, working a route on a whopping 96 p.c of Matthew Stafford’s 149 dropbacks. So, so long as Jones isn’t fully cooked at 30 years previous, he ought to drop a hammer within the stat sheet quickly sufficient.
Detroit isn’t pushing the ball downfield as a lot as they had been final 12 months, as Stafford ranks 22nd in accomplished air yards per recreation (131), however you may argue that in a very good matchup that is nonetheless a stable passing surroundings. A date in Jacksonville will surely qualify — the Jags rank lifeless final in passing success fee allowed.
4 – Ought to we preserve rolling with the Panthers offense?
Moderately quietly, the Panthers have been one of many shock groups of 2020. At 3-2, new head coach Matt Rhule has them taking part in effectively above expectations.
Because the protection has continued to be taught on the fly with a bevy of younger guys studying on the job, it’s primarily the offense doing the heavy lifting in Carolina. The Panthers rank 23rd in defensive DVOA and a surprising ninth in offensive DVOA, per Soccer Outsiders.
The query is whether or not they can preserve this going. The Panthers’ final two opponents had been defensive cupcakes in Arizona and Atlanta. The Bears in Week 6, 1st in passing and 10th in dashing success fee allowed, can be their first huge take a look at in weeks.
Chicago’s All-Star edge rusher Khalil Mack is coming off the kind of take-over-a-game outing we count on of a possible future Corridor of Famer. He legitimately tossed round Tampa Bay’s offensive tackles on the best way to irritating Tom Brady. Carolina’s offensive sort out duo of the underrated Taylor Moton and Russell Okung (when wholesome) has performed higher than anticipated this 12 months.
Nevertheless, offensive coordinator Joe Brady is doing a superb job scheming round a mean line. Teddy Bridgewater’s 2.6-second time to throw is the sixth-fastest within the league. It’s a giant motive why Teddy leads the NFL in completion fee (73.Four p.c) however he’s additionally maximizing the open home windows created within the offense. His completion fee is 3.5 share factors above expectation, per Subsequent Gen Stats. The home windows schemed up and the accuracy of Bridgewater is essential to each Mike Davis and Robby Anderson rating No. 2 and three in yards after the catch amongst all pass-catchers.
All of those metrics go to point out that the execution and design of this offense are ok to outlive more durable defensive matchups.
Certain, we’re decreasing our expectations from the purpose totals put up by Bridgewater and the receivers in Week 5. However this scoring unit can nonetheless preserve their flooring afloat in opposition to Chicago. Then, it’s proper again to taking part in defenses like Atlanta, New Orleans, Detroit, and Minnesota in 4 of their subsequent six video games earlier than the bye week.
5 – Is that this Philip Rivers’ final stand?
Certain, it could be a bit dramatic to name something a “final stand” contemplating the Colts are 3-2. Nevertheless, if Tennessee drops one other loss on a 1-Four Houston workforce to go to 5-0, Indianapolis will shortly discover themselves out of putting distance for the AFC South title.
The Colts don’t simply have to win in Week 6, they want their beginning quarterback to point out he might be the explanation they win.
On a throw-by-throw foundation, Philip Rivers hasn’t been a nightmare. In the event you have a look at some metrics, he’s been doggone good (to place it in Rivers’ language). He ranks 12th in EPA per play, 10th in success fee, and has the fifth-best completion share over expectation by Subsequent Gen Stats’ metrics.
The issue is that they’ve largely gained within the first quarter of the season due to their protection. And in each of the Colts’ losses, the sport slipped away as a result of he threw them out of it.
Once more, it’s not that Rivers seems fully washed up. He’s simply made horrific choices which have straight-up value the Colts video games. You actually can’t get a lot worse than the pick-six he threw in opposition to the Browns. It was a horrible option to throw the ball and it fluttered like a butterfly caught in a gust when it left his hand.
He wasn’t introduced in to be this sort of quarterback, the man to lose them video games. They might have saved the $25 million and simply misplaced video games due to Jacoby Brissett.
Rivers has all the time been this man. He’s all the time performed quick and unfastened late in video games and made some questionable choices. Now, when he tries to money these checks, his arm is simply going to bounce them.
Rivers wants a powerful efficiency in opposition to the 1-3-1 Bengals to vary the narrative and present he can shoulder a number of the weight on offense, If not, Indianapolis goes to take a seat a .500 workforce already compelled right into a gut-check amid a season through which they deliberate to make a title run.
If Rivers is a net-negative right here, then I’m unsure what there’s left to love about Indy’s probabilities.
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