Russia’s response to the announcement of Joe Biden’s victory within the US elections has been very muted. Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has but to formally congratulate the president-elect. Putin’s political opponent Alexei Navalny, however, was fast to tweet his congratulations, wryly observing that the free and truthful election was a “privilege not obtainable to all international locations”.

Russia’s silence stands in stark distinction to the seen enthusiasm that greeted Trump’s victory in 2016. Trump’s face adorned packing containers of sugar, whereas the Military of Russia retailer provided a 10% low cost for US residents on the day of Trump’s inauguration. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the chief of the Liberal Democratic Celebration of Russia, a far-right occasion, was pictured consuming champagne with members of his occasion in celebration of Trump’s election victory.

Putin’s silence is unsurprising. Throughout the election marketing campaign, Biden described Russia because the “greatest risk” to US safety and alliances. He promised to convene a summit of democracies to hitch forces in opposition to the rise in authoritarianism around the globe.

The Kremlin might not welcome the supposed path of journey of the Biden administration’s insurance policies, however the predictability and readability of intent is prone to be a welcome change after 4 years of Trump’s capriciousness.

There are two points that stand out for Russia from the forthcoming change within the White Home: Biden’s dedication to returning democracy to the centre of US overseas coverage, and his want to restore America’s relationship with Nato, strengthening the Euro-Atlantic alliance. The Kremlin views each of those as potential challenges to its nationwide safety.

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Unrest on the doorstep

Biden’s promise to return to a overseas coverage grounded in western democratic values may have prompted disquiet within the Kremlin. It has been deeply suspicious of Washington’s efforts for the reason that 1990s to advertise democracy and assist democratisation efforts around the globe.

My very own analysis has checked out how Russia perceives anti-government protests and standard uprisings that search to overthrow incumbent regimes to be a part of a wider technique of US-sponsored regime change, intentionally designed to undermine rival states. Such occasions, such because the so-called “colored revolutions”, standard uprisings that occurred throughout the post-Soviet area within the early to mid-2000s in international locations equivalent to Ukraine and Georgia, are seen as a elementary risk to Russia’s nationwide safety and regime stability. The Kremlin believes that Russia is weak to overseas interference in its inner affairs by way of western efforts to advertise democratic types of authorities.

In current months, the post-Soviet area has been rocked by pro-democracy protests and standard uprisings in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and, most lately, Georgia, in addition to combating between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and protracted battle in japanese Ukraine.

Belarus might turn out to be a flashpoint for confrontation between Washington and Moscow. The nation has skilled nearly every day protests and violent police crackdowns since presidential elections in August through which the incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, claimed victory amid widespread allegations of vote-rigging. Biden has criticised Trump’s silence in regards to the violence dedicated by Lukashenko’s regime in opposition to pro-democracy activists. He promised to face with the individuals of Belarus and assist their democratic aspirations and to considerably broaden sanctions in opposition to the Lukashenko regime.

Belarus is a key Russian ally and Putin’s pledge of economic and army assist for Lukashenko locations Russia at odds with the US. The Kremlin is unlikely to stay inactive if the Biden administration will increase its assist for opposition teams. Minsk and Moscow might properly work collectively in an try and deliver a swift halt to the protests earlier than Biden’s inauguration in January 2021 to forestall any US help to the pro-democracy motion.

Ukraine is one other potential flashpoint. Biden has pledged to extend US assist for the nation, together with the provision of deadly weapons, whereas additionally calling on Russia to finish its “aggression” and “occupation” of Ukraine.

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A lift to Nato

The second core problem for Russian overseas coverage entails Nato. Moscow has persistently voiced its opposition to Nato’s international attain and enlargement. It argues that the alliance is a relic of the Chilly Conflict, which threatens Russian nationwide pursuits.

Nato’s enhanced capabilities, international scope and enlargement had been recognized because the principal threat to Russian nationwide safety within the Kremlin’s 2014 Navy Doctrine. Its 2015 Nationwide Safety Technique additionally makes a number of references to Nato, together with the advance of its army infrastructure in the direction of Russia’s borders.

All through his political profession, Biden has been vocal in his assist for Nato enlargement, together with membership for Ukraine. Throughout the presidential election marketing campaign he was additionally very clear about his want to restore America’s relationship with Nato. It’s thought that he intends to resume multilateralism and strengthen the alliance, which has been broken by public spats through the Trump period.

Seen inner divisions over enlargement and funding have undermined Nato’s safety and cohesion. Adversaries equivalent to Russia are conscious that cohesion – or an absence of it – is the alliance’s vital vulnerability. A reinvigorated, unified Euro-Atlantic alliance poses a major problem to Moscow, which is able to counter any makes an attempt to kick-start the enlargement course of in states equivalent to Georgia or Ukraine.

Russia and its post-Soviet neighbours are unlikely to represent overseas coverage priorities for the incoming Biden administration. However a number of of the incoming administration’s priorities, equivalent to bolstering Nato and selling democracy, symbolize challenges for Moscow. The inaction of the Trump regime throughout the post-Soviet area, which could possibly be interpreted by Moscow as both disinterest or tacit acquiescence, is probably going to get replaced by a way more energetic method.

This implies that relations between Moscow and Washington are prone to turn out to be extra antagonistic and confrontational, because the US intensifies its engagement in Russia’s yard.

Tracey German doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or organisation that might profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their tutorial appointment.