Donald Trump’s present time period as president started on Jan. 20, 2017. It should finish on Jan. 20, 2021, with the beginning of a brand new time period – for him, or another person. AP Photograph/Matt Rourke

With a lot unclear concerning the upcoming presidential election, it’s good to know that there’s one absolute certainty.

Mail-in ballots might take a very long time to rely. Many states may have recounts, both statewide or in particular areas. President Donald Trump has signaled he might not like the result – and it stays to be seen if he or others will settle for the outcome.

As a historian who has taught and written concerning the Structure for over 40 years, nevertheless, I do know that one factor is for certain. President Trump’s time period will finish at midday on Jan. 20, 2021. At that very same instantaneous, both he’ll start a second time period, or the nation may have a brand new chief government.

The framers of the Structure didn’t set up a selected day that presidential phrases finish, however they have been very clear that the president “shall maintain his Workplace throughout the Time period of 4 Years.” Not 4 years and a day. Not three years and 364 days. 4 years.

George Washington’s first presidential time period started on March 4, 1789, regardless that he didn’t take the oath of workplace till April 30.

Ramon de Elorriaga through Wikimedia Commons

How lengthy ought to a president serve?

There’s nothing magical about that quantity. The framers debated whether or not the president’s time period needs to be 4, six or seven years, whether or not the president would possibly serve just one time period, or would possibly serve for all times. Finally, they settled on 4 years and allowed reelection.

Nonetheless, they have been emphatic that the president would serve for an outlined interval. Why? As a result of kings didn’t. They have been making a republic, the place the persons are sovereign, and neither they nor the American folks needed a monarch.

In September 1788, after the Structure was ratified, the Confederation Congress directed that the brand new authorities would start on March 4, 1789. That gave the impression to be sufficient time to conduct elections for representatives, senators, a president and a vice chairman – and for them to journey to New York, the seat of the brand new authorities.

It wasn’t. The Home of Representatives achieved a quorum on April 1, the Senate on April 6 and George Washington took the oath of workplace as president on April 30.

Nonetheless, each 4 years thereafter, for greater than 140 years, presidents started their time period – whether or not a primary or second one – on March Four as a result of Congress established it as Inauguration Day in 1792 and by no means modified it.

Electoral crises – the tie between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr in 1800, the secession disaster in 1860-61 and the contested election between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel J. Tilden in 1876 – didn’t forestall one time period from ending and one other starting on March 4.

Did a switch of energy take too lengthy?

Sen. George W. Norris of Nebraska led an effort to maneuver Inauguration Day to January.

Harris & Ewing through Wikimedia Commons

The 20th Modification, adopted in 1933, modified the day and time of presidential inaugurations to midday on Jan. 20.

The modification was the results of a 16-year campaign by Sen. George W. Norris of Nebraska. Norris believed that lame-duck congresses that met between November and March following elections didn’t replicate the folks’s will and shouldn’t legislate. This was very true, he argued, if the celebration controlling that lame-duck session had misplaced within the November elections.

Equally an issue have been defeated presidents who served for months after voters had declined to reelect them. In an emergency such because the secession disaster, the four-month interval between the election and inauguration of a brand new president had delayed a decisive response to disunion.

The Structure set the time period lengths for presidents, senators and representatives. Altering the date they began and ended would invite a constitutional problem, so it might be completed solely by modification. Beginning in 1934, Congress would convene, with newly elected members within the Home and Senate, on Jan. 3 – and starting in 1937, the president would take the oath of workplace at midday on Jan. 20.

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What if there have been different issues?

The 20th Modification additionally provided a path ahead if issues didn’t go easily within the runup to Inauguration Day.

If the president-elect died between the election and Jan. 20, the vice president-elect would grow to be president. The modification additionally declared what ought to occur if Congress couldn’t agree on who had gained the presidential election, both due to impasse over counting electoral votes or the Home’s failure to declare a winner when no candidate acquired a majority of electoral votes.

If that occurred, or if the particular person chosen wasn’t at the least 35 years previous and what the Structure calls a “pure born citizen” of the nation, the vice president-elect would serve till Congress picked another person. If there wasn’t a vice president-elect or that particular person didn’t meet the Structure’s standards both, then Congress may decide who would function performing president till it determined how a brand new president can be chosen.

Fortuitously for the nation, these provisions have by no means been examined. Some are easy – like permitting a vice president-elect to take the place of a deceased president-elect. But when a winner isn’t declared by Jan. 20, partisan division is probably going a part of the issue – and which means consensus after Jan. 20 is probably not doable.

One factor is obvious, nevertheless. The 20th Modification creates a tough cease. The sitting president’s time period ends at midday on Jan. 20. If Congress can’t decide a winner, the Presidential Succession Act, adopted in 1947, would make the speaker of the Home of Representatives the brand new chief government – at the least for a time.

Whether or not he likes it or not, and whether or not he wins reelection or not, Trump’s present time period as president will finish Jan. 20. What occurs subsequent is but unknown, however at the least that a lot is for certain.

Donald Nieman has acquired funding from the Nationwide Endowment for the Humanities.