Individuals figuring out themselves as members of the Proud Boys be a part of supporters of President Donald Trump as they march on Nov. 14, 2020, in Washington. (AP Picture/Jacquelyn Martin)

Within the lead-up to the American presidential election, it was estimated that the danger of post-election violence was excessive.

Retailers in American cities have been appropriate in being cautious in making ready for harm and theft as a consequence of contested election outcomes. To date in 2020, the Insurance coverage Info Institute estimated sustained losses of over $1 billion, making this 12 months’s social justice protests maybe the most expensive civil dysfunction in United States historical past.

The so-called Million MAGA March, cheered on by outgoing President Donald Trump, drew hundreds of Trump supporters to the U.S. capital on Nov. 14. Some violence broke out when counter-protesters confirmed up, and about 20 folks have been arrested.

Have such predictions of election-related civil unrest been exaggerated or well-advised? Most likely a little bit little bit of each. Because the solar units on Trump’s administration, it’s clear that the final 4 years have made the USA a extra fragile state.

Not unprecedented

Predictions of post-election violence in the USA haven’t been unfounded as a result of such unrest just isn’t unprecedented.

In the course of the 1920 election, violence in Florida intimidated and prevented Black folks from voting, and dozens of African People have been subsequently killed within the election-related Ocoee Riot of 1920.

That riot virtually precisely 100 years in the past was the worst occasion of election day violence in U.S. historical past.

Warnings that have been significantly sobering within the lead-up to Nov. three can maybe be checked out with barely much less alarm as we speak. Nevertheless, with an unpredictable president remaining within the White Home till Jan. 20, 2021, potential risks to democracy nonetheless exit given his supporters consider his claims that the election was “rigged.”

Trump speaks on the White Home two days after the Nov. three election.

(AP Picture/Evan Vucci)

One warning got here from the Worldwide Disaster Group, a non-profit, non-governmental group primarily based in Brussels, Belgium.

Within the lead-up to the election, for the primary time in its 25-year historical past, the group turned its consideration to analyzing the dangers of political violence within the U.S. The group usually supplies warnings regarding conflict-prone areas the place democracy is fragile.

Purple flags

Sure gadgets persistently emerged as crimson flags, indicating potential electoral violence. These danger components embody a polarized voters, extremely segregated and mutually mistrusted sources of data and the existence of armed residents and militias with quick access to weapons.

A Trump supporter carries his rifle throughout a rally on the Capitol constructing in Lansing, Mich., on Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020.

(AP Picture/Paul Sancya)

As well as, previous to the election, unresolved racial tensions have been nonetheless current within the U.S. stemming from the killing of George Floyd in Might and the next widespread civil unrest.

In June, throughout a peak interval of racially pushed civil unrest within the U.S., the president threatened to make use of the Riot Act to place down protests and used his rhetoric to inflame reasonably than to quell violence.

Maybe essentially the most harmful high indicator of electoral violence was Trump’s tendency to make use of the chief department as a bully pulpit to gasoline divisions and sow chaos. The truth is, as late as election eve, Trump tweeted {that a} courtroom determination he didn’t favour would permit dishonest and in addition result in violence within the streets.

Presidents have by no means spoken in ways in which hyperlink their election prospects and violence instantly previous to election day.

Peaceable switch of energy

The historic norm of the post-election peaceable switch of energy within the U.S. dates again to 1801, when John Adams ceded political energy to his opponent Thomas Jefferson after a contested election.

President-elect Joe Biden’s staff is taking tangible actions to work in the direction of a transition of energy. Trump nevertheless continues to assert fraud and to aim to make use of authorities equipment to reverse the election, following the time-honoured instruments of dictators.

Within the interval of transition, the brand new check of American democracy is whether or not a lame-duck president like Trump can undo 200 years of post-electoral norms to weaken American democracy.

There are 4 traits of fragile states: a lack of the monopoly on the authentic use of power, the erosion of authentic authority to make collective selections, an incapacity to offer cheap public companies and the lack to work together with different nation-states as a full member of the worldwide group.

Whereas there stays a great distance for the U.S. to fall, even falling a little bit in the direction of the path of a fragile state previous to Jan. 20 can create a extra permissive surroundings for inappropriate expressions of grievances by way of violence.

Situations for violence nonetheless exist

Insights might be gained from research of democratization in post-war societies. For instance, peace and battle researcher Kristine Höglund has studied the components that inspired violence at elections.

Armed Trump supporters stand outdoors the Maricopa County Recorder’s Workplace the place votes within the common election have been being counted in Phoenix on Nov. 6, 2020.

(AP Picture/Dario Lopez-MIlls)

Höglund discovered that situations that enabled using electoral violence embody conditions the place violence is considered as a authentic political instrument, and agitators have entry to arms. Different components that set off electoral violence are false interpretations of shut elections, misuse of political rights and militant mobilization.

These situations at present exist in America.

The OSCE Workplace for Democratic Establishments and Human Rights is now closing its Worldwide Election Commentary Mission (IOEM) within the U.S. Of their post-election findings, IEOM interlocutors reported that “election day was orderly and came about in a peaceable ambiance with out unrest or intimidation.”

Regardless of Trump’s persevering with post-defeat makes an attempt to sow chaos, most American folks haven’t but been goaded into utilizing violence and dysfunction this election season. Hopefully it is going to stay that method.

Jack L. Rozdilsky is a Professor at York College who receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Well being Analysis as a co-investigator on a challenge supported underneath working grant Canadian 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Speedy Analysis Funding.