It’s uncomfortable declaring gamers potential “busts” after final weekend. Accidents typically power you to take a step again from watching this recreation to ask “is it price it? Will it final?” And from a fantasy lens, practically a dozen gamers shall be sidelined, impacting the depth of your league and roster. Beginning stars is as justifiable as ever, however I’m nonetheless right here to take a flamethrower to your optimism on a weekly foundation, highlighting a handful of upcoming “busts” for the forthcoming slate of video games. Let me be clear – I like enjoyable, I want to give attention to positives and, most of all, don’t hate any of those gamers. I merely imagine they’ll carry out beneath their regular output.

Falcons RB Todd Gurley vs Bears (+3.5)

Whole: o/u 47.5 – 89% Began

The fantasy collective all the time instructs you to chase quantity, as it’s the most predictable factor of fantasy soccer and provides a basic flooring. Few performs are elevating barely past their flooring by two weeks than Todd Gurley. The Falcons’ working again holds the general RB11 utilization and has turned it into RB36 manufacturing – a predominant cause why we averted backs drafted in his space (Rounds 4-6). I’m not telling you to bench Gurley, particularly on this damage setting, however take into account how wonderful final week’s gamescript ought to have been – up 26-7 – and it resulted in simply 61 yards on 21 carries.

This aligns with the attention check. Gurley is now a one pace participant, has not pressured a single missed deal with by 120 minutes of soccer, owns simply two receptions in two video games and has simply three touches within the 10 yard line (the identical as Ito Smith). On a group that’s 28th in speeding snap fee by two video games, Gurley’s worth is rooted in scoring a landing.

Prediction: 19 carries for 61 yards. 1 reception for 7 yards.

Texans QB Deshaun Watson vs Steelers (-4)

Whole: o/u 45 – 74% Began

This marks Watson’s second straight week on this listing after a 16-point efficiency towards the Ravens. What a brutal opening three contests for Watson and Co., Chiefs, Ravens and now the Steelers. Unfair, soccer scheduling spirits.

What’s additionally unfair is Houston’s therapy of this offense. All of us hoped {that a} playcalling shift from Invoice O’Brien to Tim Kelly would make issues simpler, seemingly within the type of layups and easy completions. By way of two video games that merely stays a dream – Simply 5 completions to working backs, seven completions to security blanket Randall Cobb. In equity, Watson is eliminating the soccer a tenth of a second extra shortly compared to 2019, and his Common Meant Air Yards has dropped by half a yard, however to this point that’s not sufficient to beat good defenses hooked up to nice offenses – just like the Steelers this Sunday.

Pittsburgh’s protection is displaying a number of extra free ends this season in comparison with final – however they’re getting insane play from Tyson Alualu on prime of the opposite stars already on the roster. Every week I try to determine two or three matchups the place the defensive entrance may fully overpower the offensive line – a real mismatch. That is a kind of events, particularly if the Steelers appropriate their early season tendency of permitting one or two significant 20-plus yard catches per recreation. The Texans have run simply three performs inside their opponent’s 10-yard line (final within the league), so their reliance on massive performs continues to be troublesome.

Prediction: 23 of 36 for 255 yards, 1 landing, 1 interception and sacked Four occasions.

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Payments WR John Brown vs Rams (+2)

Whole: o/u – 47% Began

The Payments have completely turned the keys of the offense over to Josh Allen – 46 passing makes an attempt and 14 carries in Week 1 (out of 87 performs), 35 passing makes an attempt and 4 carries in Week 2 (out of 61 performs). This has resulted in WR8 utilization for Stefon Diggs and general WR20 utilization for John Brown. Allen’s struggles on downfield passes in his first two seasons are well-known, all the time possessing the arm energy however missing the loft or contact. That has modified this yr, as Allen has related on 12-of-14 makes an attempt touring 15-plus yards this season – a completion proportion distinction of 53% in comparison with earlier seasons.

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That’s unimaginable enchancment and speaks to the leap that Allen is making. Name me a pessimist, however some regression is inevitable on this space, at the least to a league common fee. Brown has been sensational, scoring a landing and recording at the least 70 yards in every recreation this season. However as a result of predicted regression and his pure slotting as second within the goal tree behind Stefon Diggs, Brown would possibly wrestle to maintain up the wonderful tempo he’s set by two weeks.

Prediction: 5 targets, Four catches for 51 yards.

Broncos RB Melvin Gordon vs Bucs (-6)

Whole: o/u 43.5 – 86% Began

It’s been a volume-based begin for Gordon, turning RB13 utilization into RB10 general scoring. My worry is rooted within the change at quarterback, with Jeff Driskel taking on for an injured Drew Lock. Driskel led the NFL in Common Air Yards per Try final week and is clearly not afraid to assault vertically, however far too typically I noticed a quarterback tuck the soccer and shell up in confusion when his major learn was not obtainable. The Bucs protection has carried out an important job of bottling up opposing runners on a per carry foundation and is most susceptible to receptions out of the backfield, an space the place the Broncos haven’t featured Gordon to this point this season (simply 5 complete catches).

Prediction: 15 carries for 41 yards. Three receptions for 20 yards.

Raiders WR Henry Ruggs vs Patriots (-6)

Whole: o/u 47.5 – 10% Began

You’re wanting on the largest supporter of Henry Ruggs within the soccer world, and even I’d not begin him once more till we see the identical sort of utilization that was displayed in Week 1. The Raiders have a number of choices on offense to assault defenses – Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and Ruggs. Sadly, and certain partially as a result of Ruggs’ knee damage that restricted him in Week 1, the Raiders rank final in targets directed in direction of broad receivers by two video games. I merely can’t see Invoice Belichick permitting a participant like Ruggs to rack up manufacturing towards his protection. Granted, Ruggs has the pace to interrupt an enormous play at any second.

Prediction: 6 touches for 60 complete yards.