Inexperienced Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has confronted a tricky schedule of opposing defenses this season. The fifth hardest, to be exact. And it’s been the sixth most troublesome schedule of cross defenses. They’ve needed to cope with the Bears, Chargers, Panthers and Saints, all of which contained in the top-15.

For the primary time this season, the Bucs will face a cross protection which ranks within the bottom-10 of the NFL. And the Packers cross protection is definitely worse than it’s #26 rating.

That’s as a result of their protection has not but confronted a single staff enjoying with their #1 WR / deep risk.

Week 1: Vikings weren’t beginning Justin Jefferson but (additionally first sport with out Stefon Diggs)

Week 2: Lions with out Kenny Golladay

Week 3: Saints with out Michael Thomas

Week 4: Falcons with an injured Julio Jones (performed solely 21% of snaps) and a banged up Calvin Ridley

Week 5: bye

Tampa Bay had been coping with the absence of Chris Godwin and the injured Mike Evans. However each are prone to be again for this sport.

However the place the Bucs have been robust is passing from 12 personnel. And despite the fact that they’re down TE OJ Howard, they nonetheless have been productive final week towards the robust Bears Protection. Passes from 12 delivered +0.31 EPA. The additional relaxation heading into this sport ought to enable Bruce Arians to uncover who his different TE can be alongside Rob Gronkowski, as he labored many into the combo final week.

On the season, Tampa is gaining 9.Three YPA, a 56% success fee and +0.25 EPA/att when passing from 12, and the Packers haven’t confronted a lot 12 however have allowed a 67% success fee and +0.25 EPA/att on passes from 12.

That’s not new for the Packers, as they struggled to cease 12 final 12 months, permitting 9.Zero YPA, 54% success and +0.24 EPA/att to 12 whereas faring a lot better vs 11 personnel.

Tampa makes use of a whole lot of 12 to reap the benefits of this mismatch in order that’s gravy for them.

What’s not gravy is the very fact the Bucs are usually not utilizing almost as a lot play motion as they need to.

Tampa makes use of simply 25% play motion on early downs, which sixth least within the NFL. However take a look at their splits:

With play motion: 10.2 YPA, 54% success, +0.22 EPA/att

W/o play motion: 6.Four YPA, 45% success, -0.05 EPA/att

Solely Four groups see a bigger swing in EPA (+0.27): the Saints, Vikings, Ravens and Falcons and solely Three groups see a bigger swing in YPA (+3.8): the Saints, Titans and Vikings

The Packers wrestle towards play motion and Tampa Bay is nice, however I don’t see any logical purpose to make use of much less play motion.

On the opposite facet of the ball, the Packers will welcome again Davante Adams and all of the explosiveness he brings to the desk. The matchup when Aaron Rodgers has the ball can be must-see TV. The Packers have the #2 cross offense, the #1 cross blocking line and the #7 most explosive passing assault. The Bucs have the #Four cross protection, the #Four cross speeding line and the #Four explosive cross protection. An absolute monster matchup of power on power.

However I take a look at the QBs the Bucs cross protection has confronted, and I’m not overly impressed:

Rookie Justin Herbert

Backup Jeff Driskel

Backup Brett Rypien

Nick Foles

Limp-armed Drew Brees

Teddy Bridgewater

There’s nobody on that listing that utterly frightens a DC in 2020. In 2018, Drew Brees completely. However that’s about it, and definitely not in 2020.

Now they need to go up towards Aaron Rodgers. Moreover of word, beginning SS Jordan Whitehead didn’t apply on Thursday after working towards on Wednesday. That sort of mid-week downgrade to “DNP” usually is a big purple flag, however let’s see what Whitehead does on Friday.

The Bucs #Three run protection acquired dangerous information final week as Vita Vea went down with an injured ankle and was misplaced for the 12 months. Tampa has performed three bottom-10 speeding offenses of their final Three video games, and now should face the #11 run offense of the Packers with out Vea.

What is going to actually be fascinating is whether or not the Packers can generate explosive positive factors on the bottom. The Bucs run protection ranks #1 in explosive run protection however has confronted the #1 best schedule within the NF. The Packers rank #Eight in explosive run fee offensively.

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Buffalo Payments

Story continues

The Chiefs rank #2 towards the cross and #28 towards the run. For some groups, they’d look to change approaches to run extra on the Chiefs weak run protection. However the Invoice rank #Three when passing and #32 when speeding. As such, speeding might now be productive sufficient even when it’s the weak hyperlink on the Chiefs Protection.

Secondly, look at the 2 staff’s schedules for hardest passing opponents:

The Payments already performed the Rams and Dolphins, each of which rank #Three and #9 towards the cross respectively. Buffalo gained each video games.

The Chiefs hardest passing opponents have been the #5 Raiders and the #Eight Chargers. The Chiefs almost went 0-2 in these video games (as an alternative going 1-1). The Chiefs gained by double digit margin over the 2 opponents with the worst passing offenses (#19 Ravens and #24 Patriots).

As such, whereas passing is probably not simple, it nonetheless is what the Payments do finest and an environment friendly passing technique is essentially the most direct path to victory.

Moreover, of word for somebody making an attempt to make a case for the underdog Payments: the Chiefs cross protection has carried out extraordinarily properly towards heavier units (12 personnel, 21, and so on) however has been at it’s worst vs 11 personnel passes

Splits for the Chiefs Protection:

Vs 11: 51% success, 9.Zero YPA, +0.20 EPA, 106 score

Vs 12: 47% success, 7.9 YPA, -0.03 EPA, 104 score

Vs 21: 33% success, 5.2 YPA, -0.23 EPA, 65 score

The Payments use essentially the most 11 and 10 (4-wides) personnel of any staff within the NFL.